By Europa League predictions for the next matchday
Next Europa League matchday: Thu 26 Nov 2026 (in 12 days) - League phase, Matchday 5. Kick-offs usually 17:45 and 20:00 WAT in autumn and spring, 18:45 and 21:00 WAT from late October to late March.
Our Europa League predictions cover every UEFA Europa League matchday and the Conference League on the same page. When our picks for a round are ready, they appear at the very top with a reason for each. The match helper above works every day: tell it which kind of clubs are playing and it shows how 1,182 similar European matches actually ended, so you can judge any price on your slip.
Europa League betting in 30 seconds
- Home teams won 47.7% of Europa League matches, slightly more often than in Europe's top domestic leagues, where the home side wins about 43.6%.
- A club from England, Spain, Italy, Germany or France at home to a club from elsewhere won 70.5% of the time. Away from home the same clubs won only 50.7%.
- English clubs had the best record: 59.4% wins in the Europa League and 70.6% in the Conference League.
- Europa League games averaged 2.82 goals, both teams scored in 53.6% and 4.4% ended 0-0.
- No European tip is sure. Rotation, travel and late team news decide many Thursday games.
- 47.7%home wins in the Europa League
- 70.5%top-5 league club wins at home vs others
- 50.7%the same clubs win away
- 2.82goals per Europa League game
How the 2026/27 Europa League works
Since 2024/25 the Europa League has used a single league table instead of groups. Knowing where a club stands in that table is half of any prediction, because motivation changes sharply as the league phase ends.
From the round of 16 every tie is over two legs. The away goals rule no longer exists: if the aggregate score is level after the second leg, the tie goes to extra time and then penalties. The final is a single match. The winner earns a place in next season's Champions League league phase, which is why big clubs take the later rounds seriously.
The Conference League uses the same idea with 36 clubs but only six league-phase games each, three at home and three away. Its winner earns a place in the next Europa League.
Europa League 2026/27 dates still to come
- Thu 26 NovLeague phase, Matchday 5
- Thu 10 DecLeague phase, Matchday 6
- Thu 21 JanLeague phase, Matchday 7
- Thu 28 JanLeague phase, Matchday 8
- Thu 18 FebKnockout play-offs, first legs
- Thu 25 FebKnockout play-offs, second legs
- Thu 11 MarRound of 16, first legs
- Thu 18 MarRound of 16, second legs
- Thu 8 AprQuarter-finals, first legs
- Thu 15 AprQuarter-finals, second legs
- Thu 29 AprSemi-finals, first legs
- Thu 6 MaySemi-finals, second legs
- Wed 26 MayFinal
Most games are on Thursdays, with kick-offs at 18:45 and 21:00 Central European Time. In Nigeria that is 18:45 and 21:00 WAT from late October to late March, and an hour earlier, 17:45 and 20:00 WAT, in the autumn and spring weeks when Europe is on summer time. A few games move to Wednesday when two clubs from the same city play at home in the same week.
What 1,182 European matches tell us
We counted every main-stage match of the Europa League (610) and the Conference League (572) from 2021/22 to 2024/25, using public domain results and the score after 90 minutes. For comparison, the last column shows the top five domestic leagues over a similar period (8,907 matches).
| After 90 minutes | Europa League | Conference League | Top-5 domestic leagues |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 47.7% | 47.0% | 43.6% |
| Draw | 23.6% | 22.0% | 25.4% |
| Away win | 28.7% | 30.9% | 31.1% |
| Both teams score | 53.6% | 53.0% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | 54.5% | 53.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | 76.2% | - |
| 0-0 | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% |
| Level at half time | 39.7% | 38.5% | 39.9% |
Two things stand out. Home advantage is a little stronger in European competition than in domestic football, which makes sense: long trips, unfamiliar stadiums and some hostile atmospheres. And goals behave almost exactly like domestic football, so there is no special "Thursday goals" effect to bet on blindly.
Big clubs at home and away: the most useful pattern
The single most important split in our data is where the big club plays. We grouped matches by whether each club comes from one of the top five leagues (England, Spain, Italy, Germany, France):
Top-5 club at home vs other
Won 70.5%, drew 22.8%, lost only 6.7% of 149 Europa League games. A fair price for the home win is about 1.42.
Bookmakers know this, so these favourites are often priced shorter than 1.42. Check before you add them to a slip.
Top-5 club away vs other
Won 50.7%, drew 19.6% and lost 29.7% of 148 games. Nearly one in three away trips ended in defeat.
This is where rotation, travel and atmosphere bite. Short prices on big clubs away deserve the most suspicion.
Two top-5 clubs
The home side won 40.0%, with 33.0% draws in 100 games, far more draws than in other pairings. Evenly matched, careful games.
Double chance or draw-no-bet style thinking fits better than a straight win here.
When neither club is from a top-five league, the results look like ordinary football: 47.9% home wins, 22.5% draws, 29.6% away wins. That is where our picks rely most on team form and least on reputation. Try every combination in the match helper at the top of the page.
Which countries do best in Europe
Results by the country of the club, Europa League main stage, at least 40 matches:
English clubs had the best win rate (59.4%), followed by German, Italian and Spanish clubs at around 48-51%. French clubs drew a lot (33.0%), which pulls their win rate down. Dutch, Belgian and Portuguese clubs, often favourites against smaller nations, won only around 35-39% of their games. A famous name from those leagues is not a reason to bet on them away from home.
Conference League predictions
The Conference League brings clubs from a much wider range of countries, and the quality gaps are bigger. In our data, a club from a top-five league at home won 63.9% of its Conference League games, and those games were wild: both teams scored in 65.1% and over 2.5 goals came in 68.7%, with 3.35 goals per game. Big clubs often field young or second-string players and still score freely, but they also concede.
English clubs dominated: 70.6% wins in 51 Conference League games. Matches between two clubs from outside the top five leagues were tighter: both teams scored in only 49.0% and over 2.5 goals came in 50.5%. Our Conference League picks use the same method as the Europa League, with extra weight on league strength, because a title contender in a small league can be weaker than a mid-table side from a big one.
A worked example: checking a Thursday price
Say a strong Premier League club travels to a mid-table side from Portugal and your slip shows the away win at 1.55. Those odds imply a 64.5% chance. In our data, clubs from the top five leagues won 50.7% of their Europa League away games against clubs from other leagues, a fair price of about 1.97. The gap is big. On N1,000 the bet pays N1,550 when it lands, but if the historical share held, you would lose about N214 per N1,000 staked over many such bets.
That does not mean the away win is wrong. The club may be far stronger than an average top-five side, it may field its best eleven, and the home side may be in poor form. It means the price already assumes all of that and more, and you need a specific reason to accept it. In the same situation the home-or-draw double chance covered 49.3% of matches historically, a fair price of about 2.03. If a bookmaker offers clearly more than that, it is worth a look.
Now reverse it: the same Premier League club at home to the Portuguese side at 1.35. That implies 74.1%, close to the 70.5% our data shows for top-five clubs at home, a fair price of about 1.42. Here the price is only slightly short, which is normal once a bookmaker margin is included. Home favourites from big leagues are the most predictable games in the competition, and also the ones with the least value left.
Second legs: how the first result changes the game
From February every tie has two legs, and the second leg is a different kind of match. The team that leads on aggregate usually needs only to avoid defeat, so it defends deeper and the first goal matters more than usual. The team that trails must attack, which opens the game and leaves space for counter-attacks.
Level after the first leg
Both sides need to win, so the second leg is often the most open. Goals and both-teams-to-score bets come into play, and extra time is possible for qualify markets.
One-goal lead
The leader is happy with a draw. Early goals change everything, so live betting after 15 to 20 minutes can give better prices than a pre-match bet.
Two-goal lead or more
The tie is usually settled. Leaders often rotate and slow the game down, and match result prices may not reflect the reduced effort.
Away first-leg win
The home side in the second leg must chase. It often wins the match but not the tie, which is why match bets and to-qualify bets can both be right on the same night.
League phase or knockout: how betting changes
League phase
- Eight games, one table: every point matters until about Matchday 6.
- Clubs already safe in the top 8, or already out, often rotate on Matchdays 7 and 8.
- Draws were slightly less common in the league or group phase (23.3%) than in the knockouts (24.0%), but the difference is small.
- Goal difference counts for the table, so leading teams keep attacking more than in a cup tie.
Knockouts
- Two legs: the first leg is often careful, the second depends on the first result.
- A team two goals up after the first leg may sit back, which changes goal and BTTS bets.
- Match bets settle after 90 minutes. "To qualify" bets include extra time and penalties.
- The final is a single match, often at a neutral venue, so home advantage disappears.
The checklist behind our Thursday picks
Our picks are the editors' view of form and public statistics, not inside information, and they lose regularly. These are the checks that matter most on European nights:
Rotation before Sunday
Big clubs often rest players on Thursday if they play a key league game on Sunday. We look at the weekend fixture before trusting a short price.
Travel and conditions
Long trips east, early-season heat, freezing December nights and artificial pitches in Scandinavia all hurt visiting teams.
The table situation
Is the club fighting for the top 8, safely through, or already out? Late in the league phase this matters more than form.
League strength
We compare domestic leagues, not only club names. A strong side from a small league can be priced too long.
Team news
European squads are registered separately, and some players are missing or ineligible. Line-ups often come late.
The price against history
We compare the odds with the baselines in the match helper. A pick at a price below that line needs a strong specific reason.
Popular Europa League betting markets
All the usual football markets are open on European nights. We explain each one in detail on its own page, so here is just what is special about Europe:
- 1X2 and double chance: away favourites from big leagues lose more often than their price suggests, so the home-or-draw side is worth a look. See our double chance tips.
- Both teams to score: 53.6% in the Europa League, but 65.1% when a top-five club hosts a smaller one in the Conference League. More on GG/BTTS predictions.
- Half time / full time: 39.7% of Europa League games were level at the break, close to domestic football. See HT/FT predictions.
- To qualify: settles on who goes through, including extra time and penalties. Useful in second legs, but the price on a big first-leg winner is usually very short.
- Outright winner: a long-term bet on who lifts the trophy. Money is locked up for months, and margins on outright markets are usually high.
Betting on European nights from Nigeria
All the bookmakers below list Europa League and Conference League matches, with live betting during the games. Thursday evenings fit Nigerian time well, with most kick-offs between 17:45 and 21:00 WAT. Before you place a bet, check that the market settles on 90 minutes (most do) and whether a cup-tie market includes extra time.
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Want to share a Thursday slip with friends? Our booking codes guides show how to create and load one on each bookmaker. If you combine several European games, read why long slips fail on our accumulator tips page first.
How Europa League bets are settled
Staking on Thursday nights
- Bet singles or short doubles. European games carry more late surprises than league games because of rotation.
- Wait for line-ups when you can. A short-priced favourite without its first-choice attack is a different bet.
- Use a flat stake. The same small amount on every pick, never more to chase a loss.
- Judge over a whole league phase. Eight matchdays are a fair sample; one Thursday is not.
Betting is for adults 18+ only. Only stake money you can afford to lose.
Common Europa League betting mistakes
Avoid
- Backing a famous club away from home at a short price without checking its weekend fixture.
- Treating Dutch, Belgian or Portuguese favourites as sure winners abroad.
- Putting six or more European games in one slip.
- Forgetting that "to qualify" and match result bets settle differently.
Do instead
- Check the league table situation late in the league phase.
- Compare the price with the match helper baseline.
- Look at home-or-draw when a big club travels far.
- Keep stakes small and track your own results.
More predictions with the same honest approach: today's football predictions, GG predictions, double chance and HT/FT tips.
Frequently asked questions
When is the next Europa League matchday?
The strip at the top of this page always shows the next date from the official 2026/27 calendar. League phase games are mostly on Thursdays, with knockout rounds from February and the final on 26 May 2027.
What time do Europa League matches start in Nigeria?
Usually 18:45 and 21:00 WAT from late October to late March, and 17:45 and 20:00 WAT when Europe is on summer time.
How many teams qualify from the Europa League league phase?
The top 8 of the 36 clubs go straight to the round of 16. Clubs placed 9th to 24th play two-legged knockout play-offs, and 25th to 36th are eliminated.
How often do home teams win in the Europa League?
In 610 main-stage matches from 2021/22 to 2024/25, the home side won 47.7%, drew 23.6% and lost 28.7% after 90 minutes.
Why do favourites lose so often in the Europa League?
Rotation before weekend league games, long trips and unfamiliar conditions. Clubs from the top five leagues won 70.5% at home against other clubs but only 50.7% away.
Are Conference League predictions on this page too?
Yes. The match helper has a Conference League setting, and our picks cover both competitions when a round is played.
Does extra time count in Europa League bets?
Not for match result, goals or BTTS markets, which settle after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. To qualify and outright bets do include extra time and penalties.
Is there still an away goals rule?
No. UEFA scrapped it from 2021/22. Level two-legged ties go to extra time and then penalties.
Which country has the best record in the Europa League?
English clubs, with 59.4% wins in Europa League main-stage games from 2021/22 to 2024/25, followed by German, Italian and Spanish clubs at around 48-51%.
What are the best Europa League tips for accumulators?
Keep European slips short. Home sides from strong leagues against weaker visitors are the most reliable type of match, but they are usually priced very short. Several big clubs away from home in one slip is a common way to lose.
What does the Europa League winner get?
A place in the next season's Champions League league phase, which is why big clubs take the later rounds seriously.
Do Champions League teams still drop into the Europa League?
No. Since the 2024/25 format change, clubs that finish 25th to 36th in the Champions League league phase are eliminated from Europe. The Europa League field is fixed from the start of its league phase.
How is Conference League betting different from Europa League betting?
The Conference League has bigger quality gaps and more unfamiliar clubs. In our data, top-five league clubs at home won 63.9% of Conference League games, with both teams scoring in 65.1% and 3.35 goals per game, so goal markets matter more there than in the Europa League.
